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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:44 pm 
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Ok, I was typing up a lot and confusing myself. To answer your question, they (Rag and Neo) can't be naive scum. Naive returns town results only. They've only given scum so far so that excludes naive and sane.

That being said, could they still be insane? Possibly. But let's go over it point by point.

We assume HW is truthful. Therefore his results are as stated (D1 Neo as T, and D2 Rag as S). Note that HW can't be sane scum, otherwise Neo would be dead (no way Neo was protected). HW is either ST or IT/IS.

(Note: Abbreviations are sanity alignment so sane town is ST, insane town IT, etc for the rest.)

1.) Assume HW is ST.

This means Neo is town, and Rag is scum. Because I'm not dead, Rag can't be PS. Therefore Rag is IS.

2.) Assume HW is Insane.

This means Rag is town, and Neo is scum. Neo can't be paranoid because I'm not dead. Therefore Neo is IS.

These are the simple outlooks. It gets better as you think about it.

3.) Let's assume Neo is insane as town or scum.

A - Neo being IT means his result on Rag makes Rag town. This conflicts with ST HW's result on Rag (S) meaning either Neo isn't insane town or HW isn't sane.

B - Neo being IS means Rag has to be town which means HW is insane to fit the investigation.

So it turns out Neo can be PT, HW is ST, and Rag is IS.
Or Neo is IS, HW is IT/IS, and Rag is PT.

Something to that effect.

It is possible for Neo to be scum and HW to be scum, and that limits Rag to being town (can't have three scum unless we were lied to by JD).

If Neo is scum and HW is town, then Rag could be scum maybe. Neo can only be IS. HW would be IT, but the resulting results don't mesh for Rag (HW sees Rag as town, but Neo sees Rag as town). So that combination won't work.


So in conclusion, Neo is PT while HW is ST and Rag is IS. Or Neo is IS while HW is IT/IS and Rag is PT.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:51 pm 
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TL;DR@Dusky:

Yes, but only one could be insane scum. Not both, otherwise contradictions pop up.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:52 pm 
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EBWOP: And given that HW got two different results, we know either Neo or Rag is scum. Just not which one (which is a downgrade from my earlier assertion that Neo had to be PT).


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:20 pm 
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KoD - you seem to be making the assumption that scum is honest about the targets.

I was thinking that 2 scum would be way off balance, but, if they don't have a night kill, then it could be pretty balanced, as they just would need to try and steer the lynches towards town. Although, I would have to believe that at some point, if we keep no lynching, that someone's going to die.

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Players are still being treated as town cops though, so scum will have to discover themselves to win as well.

I could see this two ways - one that there's multiple scum, but they don't know who the other one is, or that the person who is scum does not know that they are scum...

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Paranoid scum will poison their target

Seems like that might be a 'target dies in x days' type of effect.

So, at some point, we do need to start lynching, although putting it off as long as we can is clearly the best option.

Honestly, I'm not liking HW - putting in the joke comments, then adding his result last. I'd like to see him claim first tomorrow.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:57 pm 
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I'm taking people at face value, Neo. The alternative is to take nothing anyone says at face value, and that does nothing to help us solve the game. So unless you want to show me who the scum player/s is, then what else do you propose we do to advance the game? The only other viable option would be to lynch someone to provide a basis for analyzing the results people have given.

I'm not likely you as of this moment Neo. Take what I said above into account, then couple it with a post you made a bit ago today.

"False info, no matter how short, only hurts town."

Remember? What you've stated in your most recent post (questioning my analysis) at its essence runs counter to what you stated here. Yes, false info hurts town. You point this out only after HW says otherwise about what he's stated. This implicitly implies you're taking him and (indirectly) others at face value. Like I am. That means working with the info as it is presented.

This is despite the fact that some players are scum.



All that being said, a lynch will certainly work if it is between you and Rag due to being based on HW's results. Course if you want to claim HW is lying about his results, then maybe we should devolve into claiming you are lying as well and keep going in circles until everyone is lying.



As for poisoning a person, they die the next time. Both you and Rag could have poisoned me, but based on results (taken at face value) it turns out that neither of you can be a poisoner (paranoid scum). Why? Because, based on HW again, you and Rag are different alignments. If one of you was paranoid scum, the other would be town. That means I was poisoned on N0 and would have died N1 (neither of you targeted me again nor did anyone else target me).

Course if you're arguing (as it seems you are) that poisoning can happen past 1 day (as in the target dies in 2 days), then we have an issue here that originates with you calling foul on results/role stuff.

Clarification: @JD - How does poison work in this game?


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:18 pm 
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All kills function standard to their respective type (ie standard kill happens the night of targeting, poison the following night) in conjuction with the rules of the game.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:18 pm 
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Unless there is a mechanic that extends the duration of the poison effect so it occurs on a later night, then all the previous assumptions stand.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:15 pm 
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The info on poison is really helpful. And, I'd say, good news, as I would expect someone to be dead by now. Could insane scum be responsible for the role block?

Quote:
Course if you're arguing (as it seems you are) that poisoning can happen past 1 day (as in the target dies in 2 days), then we have an issue here that originates with you calling foul on results/role stuff.


I was more stating that I didn't know how a poison role would work, but, now that it's been explained, no more fears there. I'm going to remain in the no lynch group until at least tomorrow, barring anything crazy happening.

And yes, KoD, for now, I'm taking people at face value, especially if scum does not know they are scum. If that's true, then, assuming people are honest about their targets, it should just be a matter of time before we are able to solve this whole thing.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:24 pm 
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I already covered it.

Both you and Rag cannot be paranoid scum. You can be insane scum, sure, but there would be no one to cause the kill based on all the targets as mentioned.

Now if something did happen, then someone would be lying.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:52 pm 
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Rag: S, S (KoD, HW)
Neo: S, S (KoD, Rag)
Dusky: T, blank (KoD, Neo)
Argh: T, T (Neo, Dusky)
HW: T, S (Neo, Rag)
KoD: T, blank (Rag, Dusky)

From D1 the only people who could have been paranoid scum were Neo and Rag. The other could have been insane scum that protected me; however, D2 results, mainly HW's result on Rag, shows that it is impossible for either Neo or Rag to be paranoid scum. Either could be insane scum while the other has to be town. This is based on HW's D1 result on Neo and D2 result on Rag.

As it stands I'm ok with lynching either Rag or Neo. Specifically, Neo. While I do dislike some of what he's been saying today (it really comes off as conflicting with himself such as scum can lie but take ppl at face value or being ok with lynching tomorrow specifically for some reason that is unclear).

The only problem I can see with lynching Neo is that his death will only indicate HW's sanity, and HW's sanity should be resolved tomorrow with his next target.

So it comes down to who is more scummy (course for me that is Neo).

Also there is still the matter of the blank results that Dusky and I got today. Course that being said, I just noticed a chain. Dusky investigated Neo and got a blank result (jam smeared the result). I investigated Dusky (whom investigated Neo), and I got a blank result (error 404, investigation not found). If Neo had an ability which played havoc with Dusky and, in turn, played havoc with me targeting Dusky, then it might explain the blank results. Neo is the only root I can see there involving the blank results. Problem there though is that Argh also investigated Dusky and got a result, so that doesn't hold up. Perhaps it might be something passive in our roles that we are not aware of.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:48 am 
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I am for going with a no-lynch again. As no-one died so far, I don't see why lynching someone now instead of getting more info first would make more sense than during day 1.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:35 am 
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Crackpot theory: the longer we go without a lot, the more investigations will fail...

Probably not, but it seems as good as any other theory right now. I have been staring at the data trying to find something KoD might have missed, but there is nothing that could explain why those two investigations failed, and no others. At least that I can see.

I wonder what tomorrow will bring.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:24 pm 
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Getting a bad feeling about this tbh, not seeing how the game is balanced if scum has no kill and no way to stop infinite investigations.

Vote:Ragnarokio


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:54 pm 
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@Dusky: I'm going to echoo Argh here a bit. I assumed that your and my investigations failed due to being part of our roles in some capacity. But Argh's words indicate that maybe random investigations will fail possibly. Let's say two other investigations fail. The loss of information doesn't help with advancing who is what to an extent (today's results were advanced by HW and Neo the most while the rest were not as impactful).

Either way, as I said much earlier, we know there is scum among Neo and Rag. However, this is based solely off of HW's result. If HW is scum, then him lying will be a drawback. There is no way to know though, unless we have a clear death to work from.

The best approach is to assume everyone is truthful (I'm sure JaC would approve). We only need then to kill one.


IMPORTANT NOTE (aimed at HW mostly):

The randomness of the sanities is what balances potentially not having a kill. I'd suggest you unvote as we can spare one more day. At the bare minimum, an extra day allows you to get another result* to determine what sanity you are. This means we can lynch either Neo or Rag at that point as we'll know.

Side Note:

* - Echoing Argh here again, what if the blank results are the result of stalling players from finding out what sanity they are? That is, what if they trigger once for any player that would, with the next result, figure out their sanity? Take Dusky and I for example. What if, based on our targets and all the other results available, we were able to figure out what sanities we are? Thus, our results that would have revealed this were wiped out to keep the game going longer. I mention this because IF this is true, the HW's next result would be omitted to prevent him from figuring out what sanity he is, thereby stalling us another day wrt to his sanity and whether we lynch Neo or Rag.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:39 pm 
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Interesting theory. I would suggest that HW investigates someone that wasn't blank yet - that we we can see whether it was related to our roles (Kod and mine) or related to failing investigations in order to prevent us finding out too much about sanity.

(Omg JaC is still around?)


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:18 pm 
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Someone (Argh) already investigated you at the same time I investigated you. I mentioned it before when I surmised that it was just passively related to our roles. This new theory seems more probable.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:49 pm 
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haven't read everything but saw there was a vote on me

i still think no-lynch is the best but i'd rather not die

Vote: Neosilk

will hopefully have time to catch up before the lynch happens, whenever that is

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:04 pm 
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I'd much rather see Neo die over Rag. Nothing personal Neo, though I've, time and again, professed my love for Rag.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:13 pm 
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EBWOP:

Vote: Neo


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:16 pm 
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How much time do we have?
Can't tell when day started because I think it's showing the time stamp of night only, as Jay is sneaky and edited his post. That, or he is Dr. Strange.


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