It is currently Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:16 am

All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 294 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15  Next
Author Message
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 12:37 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Sep 23, 2013
Posts: 3044
Well, both Rag and JD placed votes which could have lost the game if they were incorrect votes from town players, so I would say you're probably right.

_________________
Come and play 3 Card Magic! The Most Minimalistic Magic Format! (TM)

my ego sig


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:25 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Jan 31, 2015
Posts: 1922
Location: California
Identity: Rubik
I could also see Rag doing a late game bus, to be honest. If one of them is assuming that today's results will chain into a favorable result tomorrow, turning against each other might be the smarter move.


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 2:23 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Jun 26, 2018
Posts: 27
Location: Cathedral of All
Identity: His Eminence
I'm operating under the reasoning of rubik/aaarrrgh as I don't see rag and aaarrrgh starting off day against each other. You had aaarrrgh's lurker campaign from yesterday, but that easily drops away in lylo and was directed at Rubik yesterday anyway so that's not really an essentially busable reason. Conversely if aaarrrgh/rubik is a team aaarrrgh has to switch gears today to avoid a bus hence the shift to Rag. Top it off with myself and Rag being the only prominent neighbors during the night when aaarrrgh and Rubik would have had a chance to discuss abilities and use during that initial night 0 (dusky did post, but it was shortly before deadline if I have my time stamps synced up) and you have a more prominent reason why two neighbors were possibly selected by the neighborizor.

That's my train anyway.

_________________
And lo, through the Dusk came the Lady of Blue illuminated by the Flame of Light. Our savior from the Dark. Give yourself, your life onto the Dusk and unto the Light.


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 3:34 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: May 09, 2014
Posts: 2455
one shot nested watcher (11)
neighbour (-1)

_________________
I used to view myself as a crow. A large, negative, angry bird who is portrayed as the sign of a bad omen. Feared by others and wanting to dominate, I was my own flock.


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 3:35 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: May 09, 2014
Posts: 2455
rubik wasn't in the neighbourhood until night 1

_________________
I used to view myself as a crow. A large, negative, angry bird who is portrayed as the sign of a bad omen. Feared by others and wanting to dominate, I was my own flock.


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 4:00 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Jan 27, 2015
Posts: 292
Location: Terisia City
Hmmm. What Jay is saying makes sense to me. (Apart from the night 0 Rubik)

Rubik, what's your voting intention? Are you leaning towards someone?


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 4:08 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Jan 27, 2015
Posts: 292
Location: Terisia City
Also, might be worth looking at the (claimed) points again because we know Neo's role was real.

Rag: +10
Aaarrrgh: +22
Rubik: +21
Me: +1
Jay: ??? (if you said it, it's too far back for me)


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 4:39 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Sep 23, 2013
Posts: 3044
Neo's role was real, but inaccurate. The sample size is too small to draw any really strong conclusions. Except that Dusky is unlikely to be scum if all claims are true, as that number is so far from the median.

_________________
Come and play 3 Card Magic! The Most Minimalistic Magic Format! (TM)

my ego sig


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:37 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: May 09, 2014
Posts: 2455
if dusky is telling the truth i think the odds of her being scum are very close to zero

of course we have no reason to believe dusky is telling the truth aside from maybe a personality read that only JD would be in a position to make

_________________
I used to view myself as a crow. A large, negative, angry bird who is portrayed as the sign of a bad omen. Feared by others and wanting to dominate, I was my own flock.


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:20 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Jan 27, 2015
Posts: 292
Location: Terisia City
Aaarrrgh wrote:
Neo's role was real, but inaccurate. The sample size is too small to draw any really strong conclusions. Except that Dusky is unlikely to be scum if all claims are true, as that number is so far from the median.

But we know how the system works. It's a raffle. The conclusions aren't certain but can be strong. A small sample with a high number of tickets makes it actually more useful.

So, I think Jay had 12 points, which would mean a total of 56 tickets, out of which 22 are yours. So 39% of the tickets.


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:31 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: May 09, 2014
Posts: 2455
assuming jay is 15 because that seems around average the odds of each player being mafia assuming all information is truthful and only based on the raffle system and not additional information are, based on my randomly applying operations to numbers in what might be an approximation of real mathematics:

Rag: 16%
Argh: 29%
JD: 24%
Dusky: 1%
Rubik: 29%

i don't think this a particular useful exercise for a variety of reasons but it is kind of interesting

i wonder how one would actually mathematically calculate this

_________________
I used to view myself as a crow. A large, negative, angry bird who is portrayed as the sign of a bad omen. Feared by others and wanting to dominate, I was my own flock.


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:34 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Jan 31, 2015
Posts: 1922
Location: California
Identity: Rubik
Duskyblue wrote:
Hmmm. What Jay is saying makes sense to me. (Apart from the night 0 Rubik)

Rubik, what's your voting intention? Are you leaning towards someone?

I'm considering voting Aaarrrgh and just hoping that I didn't by pure chance neighborize the scum team.


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:06 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Jun 26, 2018
Posts: 27
Location: Cathedral of All
Identity: His Eminence
I didn't total out but I did state my separate values when I claimed. My base was 12 and my modifier was -5 for a total of 7.

I feel like dusky probably has something up her sleeve but I have a solid town lean so it's fine.

My speculation of night 0 is just that at best. We have no means of designing eithers activity during the night.

_________________
And lo, through the Dusk came the Lady of Blue illuminated by the Flame of Light. Our savior from the Dark. Give yourself, your life onto the Dusk and unto the Light.


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:31 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Sep 23, 2013
Posts: 3044
Duskyblue wrote:
Aaarrrgh wrote:
Neo's role was real, but inaccurate. The sample size is too small to draw any really strong conclusions. Except that Dusky is unlikely to be scum if all claims are true, as that number is so far from the median.

But we know how the system works. It's a raffle. The conclusions aren't certain but can be strong. A small sample with a high number of tickets makes it actually more useful.

So, I think Jay had 12 points, which would mean a total of 56 tickets, out of which 22 are yours. So 39% of the tickets.


Except there were more tickets in the pool. The dead players had tickets too.

_________________
Come and play 3 Card Magic! The Most Minimalistic Magic Format! (TM)

my ego sig


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:04 am 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: May 09, 2014
Posts: 2455
the tickets of the dead players don't matter because their alignments are known

_________________
I used to view myself as a crow. A large, negative, angry bird who is portrayed as the sign of a bad omen. Feared by others and wanting to dominate, I was my own flock.


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:09 am 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: May 09, 2014
Posts: 2455
i think as you add more tickets above the median, you have an exponentially higher chance, rather than proportionally, of being scum, and the opposite is also true.

consider if you have three people, one with 98 tickers, and two with 1 ticket each, and are choosing two people to become scum

the person with 98 tickets has a 98% chance of rolling scum on the first draw. If he fails and one of the 1-ticket players gets drawn, then he has a 99% chance of rolling scum on the second draw. His chance of being scum is thus over twice as high as it would be proportionally. (it ends up being 99.98% instead of 98%)

i tried to calculate the odds by taking the square of the chance of someone not being scum twice, figuring that whatever error is generated by not altering the odds slightly for the second draw would be slight, but i ended up with a number over 1.0, so i ended up shrinking all the numbers proport]ionally until they added up to 1.0, and then rounded (i think i lost a percentage point to rounding). Needing to do that makes me think i probably made a fundamental error somewhere, but i wouldn't be surprised if my numbers were still around accurate.

of course they had the wrong value for JD (by a good margin), and so rubik and arrgh should be significantly higher, me slightly higher, JD very significantly lower, and dusky slightly higher.

although we can't verify that the numbers are accurate anyway

i am honestly more interested in the math than in the practical application of it here

_________________
I used to view myself as a crow. A large, negative, angry bird who is portrayed as the sign of a bad omen. Feared by others and wanting to dominate, I was my own flock.


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:48 am 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Sep 23, 2013
Posts: 3044
It would seem a reasonable assumption that Rubik and I are honest about our points, as lying about having a high value would be useless. I'm inclined to believe Dusky, if only because that would be an outrageous lie to try. U don't know Dusky well enough to tell if that would be a gambit she would go for. The people most likely to be lying, just from a number perspective, are Rag and JD. But again, the numbers do not tell the whole truth, as we learned from the Neo/KoD fiasco.

And I think the others still affect probability to a degree, at least the night kills. Since scum will always kill town, that creates a kind of Monty Hall-problem, possibly. I don't have a way to calculate it right now. Not that it really makes a difference, it's just fascinating.

_________________
Come and play 3 Card Magic! The Most Minimalistic Magic Format! (TM)

my ego sig


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:08 am 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Jan 27, 2015
Posts: 292
Location: Terisia City
Aaarrrgh wrote:

Except there were more tickets in the pool. The dead players had tickets too.

As Rag pointed out, that doesn't matter, as we know their alignment and only the remaining tickets can contain the ones that were chosen for mafia.

Rubik wrote:
I'm considering voting Aaarrrgh and just hoping that I didn't by pure chance neighborize the scum team.

I say go ahead. If Rag and Jay are the scum team, they were already neighborized anyway. ;)


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:26 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Jan 31, 2015
Posts: 1922
Location: California
Identity: Rubik
Vote: Aaarrrgh

Here's hoping.


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:48 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Jan 27, 2015
Posts: 292
Location: Terisia City
Indeed!


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 294 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15  Next

All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group