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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:09 pm 
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@sky, what Neo has admitted is that he crafted a fictious argument to conceal his ability and it wasn't until this claim did he even mention KoD as most likely to be scum. Prior to that he stated both that he say no course where KoD wasn't trying to be scum and that the only agenda he was pushing was a scum lynch with his vote placed on KoD. Both of these are clear indicators he was arguing at that time that KoD is scum, not that he was most likely to be.

The argument Neo is making now is not the same argument he started with so you trying to retcon it into the same argument only expands upon the suspicions KoD has already put forth on you, especially for you to be doing so when you're drawing comparisons to current KoD and past experience town KoD by your own admission.

As for Rag, that is a neighbor QT thing. Dusky can confirm.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:02 pm 
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Skystone wrote:

A valid point. I hereby appoint myself both pope and anti-pope of your organization.

You can't be both. Too much responsibility.


As for Rag, that is a neighbor QT thing. Dusky can confirm.

Why would you reveal that now? :/


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:14 pm 
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@sky, what Neo has admitted is that he crafted a fictious argument to conceal his ability and it wasn't until this claim did he even mention KoD as most likely to be scum. Prior to that he stated both that he say no course where KoD wasn't trying to be scum and that the only agenda he was pushing was a scum lynch with his vote placed on KoD. Both of these are clear indicators he was arguing at that time that KoD is scum, not that he was most likely to be.

You are trying to conflate separate phenomena, while also misconstruing others. Perhaps you need to re-read Neo's posts. Neo's initial proposition -- literally the second post after the start of the Day 1 -- was specifically that KoD was trying to be mafia while selecting roles. This is substantially and materially different from suggesting that KoD ended up with a mafia role, as we know for a fact that mafia points are not deterministic in selecting a player's alignment. Consequently, the only way that you can justify the argument that you are proposing is by claiming that Neo did not understand the premise of the game.

Neo does subsequently suggest that he is pursuing a scum lynch, but you should know as an experienced veteran that we do not generally lynch players because we have determined beyond any kind of doubt that they are scum. Instead, we lynch the most likely culprits. Neo even acknowledges in the post that you are attemping to quote that "I still believe [KoD] to be the strongest target." This is evidence he is making a proposition based on balance of probability ("KoD is inclined to choose mafia-leaning roles; hence, KoD is more likely than an average hypothetical player to be mafia") that is consistent with his initial allegations.

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The argument Neo is making now is not the same argument he started with so you trying to retcon it into the same argument only expands upon the suspicions KoD has already put forth on you, especially for you to be doing so when you're drawing comparisons to current KoD and past experience town KoD by your own admission.

This doesn't follow at all. KoD and I were discussing a specific problem that was introduced by a) Neo's initial posts and, b) my initial response to KoD's reaction to those posts. It doesn't matter that Neo's argument has since changed, because KoD is presumably incapable of travelling backwards through time, and therefore his reactions to specific past phenomena cannot be informed by what happened after he had already reacted to those stimuli. Furthermore, because I was specifically suggesting that Neo's argument was structurally valid in the general and thus potentially applicable to our game situation in the same kind of way, Neo's actual motivations for formulating that particular argument at that particular time are quaternary at best. We can have that argument if you really want, but it's materially different from what I've been discussing, and you've already said that you believe Neo to be town.

In any case, you are functionally arguing, to use an analogy, that I can't discuss the French Monarch because the territory of France is a republic in the present day. That is a patently absurd and logically specious proposition. The past influences the present, not the other way around.

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As for Rag, that is a neighbor QT thing. Dusky can confirm.

You will need to un-abbreviate and/or explain, as my ability to unpack abbreviations is apparently limited.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:15 pm 
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Duskyblue wrote:
Skystone wrote:

A valid point. I hereby appoint myself both pope and anti-pope of your organization.

You can't be both. Too much responsibility. [/
Somebody has to stand up and reform the whole "burn the (un)believers with a lighter" part of your dogma.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:52 pm 
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Skystone wrote:
Somebody has to stand up and reform the whole "burn the (un)believers with a lighter" part of your dogma.

Worry not. We developed more efficient methods by now.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:24 pm 
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@Arrgh:

I'd love to. My overall point total was 51 points with one choice having an undefined number of points (? was the listed value) while two of the choices had +0 points.


@Neo:

I assume it was said in every role pm that the sum of the two point values would determine *how likely* it was one would be mafia. I assume every role pm further stated that the first two players to be taken out would be mafia while the last two would get bonuses.

Here is why I bring this up. You claim to have targeted me with an ability, and that your ability let's you know how many mafia points I got. Also, from that knowledge, your ability let's you know that I am more likely to be mafia, but not a definitive truth. You demonstrated this by already saying you don't know if I am mafia, only that I am more likely to be mafia. So this begs the question then, how does your ability work exactly? Because it seems to me that you, for sure, should know how many points I have (I won't bother asking you to state how many since you can just claim I'm lying if I say otherwise), but you don't know how many points others have chosen. So how is it that I am "more likely" to be mafia from this ability?


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:42 pm 
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Unvote

Vote: KoD


From what I know of KoD's nature, he'd probably take the highest point value abilities available to himself and try to become scum.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:04 pm 
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Right, and you really might not. But maybe you played enough with him to have an idea.


Not really. I've played with him and others a lot, but in a game like this there is too variables. For instance, and for the sake of argument since Neo mentioned it earlier in this game though I don't know if that is game him or real him talking, Neo said he prefers town to mafia since mafia puts too more pressure on him. I never got the impression nor seen him state something like that before (but I am unable to recall every post by him on this forum too mind you). I am dead certain he's enjoyed at least one game where he was mafia (if memory serves, I think he was mafia with me in Zinger's Spider Man 2 Mafia, and we had fun there even though it was a clown fiesta). In other words, what I'm saying is that there is a joy factor that is different between being town and mafia that an individual could arbitrarily decide on if they were so inclined (even though they may prefer one role or another). Also, consider the roles themselves. In You Pick the Role games, there could be a role option that is so fun they would pick it (especially over a vanilla option). That is, saying a player prefers town doesn't mean they'll pick the lowest point value option available (ie. default vanilla option that gives +0 points). Especially if there is something far more entertaining that can be played (and it could have a high point value).

At the end of the day though, no, there isn't enough information available to make a reasonable guess as to how likely Neo is to be mafia. Especially since the choices of others could be higher or lower than his own choices.


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So? You keep saying Jay knows you like no other, so shouldn't he for example have an idea of what you would prefer? And vice versa - do you think given the choice Jay would pick a mafia role, or would you say you have no idea what so ever?

You yourself draw on other games and past behaviour multiple times in the last game we played, so why would you now totally ignore or even reject the idea?


*Points to previous paragraph.*

I draw on behavior and games in the past when interacting with players in a current game to gauge how/why that player is acting. Then I try to figure out if they're townie or otherwise. It's by no means exact, and I can and have been wrong in this. That being said, trying to use these same games to determine how a player would pick role options that are unknown in both how fun they might be to play, how difficult, how easy, or various other aspects that might influence a player's choice is a horrible idea. If there was something concrete to work with (like knowing point totals), then it'd be *something* of a start, but by no means the be all end all.

Also you leave JD out of this.

:V

And to answer that question as well since you seem to be like Sky concerning this type of thinking, no, I do not know what JD would tend towards. I'm sure back on the magic forums there may have been a post where he stated preferences, but the only time I ever really socialized with anyone in the mafia subforum was when I was playing games. It's really the only way I talk with and get to know people in a sense.

:V

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No! That is not the argument. That would be the conclusion if we had reasonable evidence for the premise. The argument, as I understand it, or lets call it the idea (as I have not googled all the terms), is that players who like being mafia are statistically more likely to be mafia in this game than players who would try to avoid that.


The argument is the entire thing. KoD is mafia because he is more likely to pick mafia roles. Or, stated another way, because KoD is more likely to pick mafia roles, KoD is mafia.

Here is what I read up on to get a sense when talking to Sky so I could better talk about it: https://www.iep.utm.edu/val-snd/

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Yes, I agree there needs to be proof. But I did so from the start (as did Skystone). What we are saying is that the argument that mafia-inclined players are more likely to pick up mafia points (and end up mafia) can be applied to everyone, but not everyone has the same inclinations, therefore the conclusion isn't the same.


First, no. Sky did not start off that way. Why do you think I've been raising hell over here? All he did was come in and say I didn't refute Neo's premise since I used a "rhetorical hyperbole".

Second, I know what both of you are saying. It is a consequence of following the logic that is implied from what I stated. My "rhetorical hypberbole" -- the Everyman argument JD concisely and correctly talk about - illustrated how absurd it was to apply it to everyone. Step away from your perspective from a moment, and look at this from my eyes to get a better understanding. Neo uses a faulty argument that I claim can apply to everyone (due to how he is using it). Neo disagrees and says he is only applying it to me (it is obvious that there is nothing specific to me concerning all this). So I apply the concept to him as well and vote him over it for the same reasons. If you reject that it can be applied to everyone (which you should since everyone obviously has different tendencies), then you must accept that more is needed focus on a single person. That is a logical consequence of rejecting my asserted statement (that the argument applies to everyone).

Third, Sky has been wrapped up in what-ifs concerning this as opposed to just dealing with what is actually going on in the game. Had he (and you to a much smaller extent) just been focused on the game itself, a lot of what has been brought up could have been avoided (as there is a lot of fluff as well as unnecessary distractions -- unless of course this was all intentional to distract).

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At first I thought you were just missing the point, but by now I do find it really strange how you are so unwilling to consider player tendencies and statistical likelihood.


:bored:

Ok Dusky, what are the player tendencies? What is the statistical likelihood? Show me what you got.


EBWOP:

Really Rubik? You opportunistic sob.

As a matter of fact I have not taken the highest points possible to obtain a high score. I choose a medium point value and a point value of zero.

This is twice now (well only once technically since Neo's is muddled a lot -- he went from originally using that argument, to saying he was only reaction trolling, to now saying it is based all on an investigation result) where you guys come out swinging without anything to actually support your stance.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:28 pm 
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I am willing to agree that KoD's behaviour thus far is consistent with what I know of his town play, but I don't think I've ever played a game with him in which he was mafia, so I have no means by which to comparatively analyse his respective styles.


Wait, what?

I've played mafia with you before now?

:V


Quote:
This is not an argument that KoD is mafia. Rather, it is an argument that KoD is more likely to be mafia given that premise 3 is true -- which, with minor reformulation in light of the allegation that KoD is one of two players with the highest number of mafia points, is both valid (in my earlier sense) and credible (because there is now non-trivial evidence). Whether or not this is sufficient evidence to convict depends on a) whether we feel that KoD's conduct has also been suspect, and b) whether we have evidence against another player that is stronger than the statistical allegation against KoD.


Neo
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vote: KoD
I don’t see any situation here where you were not trying to be mafia when you selected your roles.


Quote:
But I'm not applying it to anyone. I'm applying it to you. And I'm sure I'm right - maybe not about actually being mafia, but, at least about picking the options that would make you most likely to be mafia. Hence, the vote.


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Therein lies the problem with what you're doing. Here, let's just do it this way.

[color=Vote: Neo

I don't see any situation where you don't pick roles that would make you likely to be mafia Neo. Thus why I am now voting for you.


Neo's intent was that I must be mafia. He doesn't know beyond a shadow of doubt, but that is what he is gunning for. He's sure of this because of his ability that let's him know that I'm somehow more likely to be mafia (not necessarily am). Neo's argument was never structured in such a way as the way you have structured it.

Sky
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Neo only said that he couldn't see a scenario in which you didn't choose options with the highest number of mafia points, not that he thinks you must necessarily be mafia.


Neo
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But I'm not applying it to anyone. I'm applying it to you. And I'm sure I'm right - maybe not about actually being mafia


Yes, he does.

His argument was that I am mafia because I am more likely to pick high mafia point values. Also, consider that he already had role information on me. His role already told him (somehow) that I am more likely to be mafia. So that's not in doubt for him. He took what he knew, and constructed his argument in such a way as to say I must be mafia because [of what he knows]. He does not know that I am mafia, but he certainly believes that to be the case.

Also, nice on asking for more from Rubik.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:45 pm 
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@Sky:

QT - Quick Thread. They are neighbors in a separate thread where they can discuss among themselves whatever they like. Think masons minus one or both knowing/being told alignments.

Anyway, I know where JD is coming from with what he said to you. I already showed you Neo's intent even though you believe otherwise concerning it. Neo already had knowledge that I am more likely to be mafia as per his role. So he's not making an argument that I am more likely to be mafia because I will tend towards picking mafia roles (something that any player can be accused of). No, instead (because of his role knowledge), he made the argument (as JD has stated) to indicate I must be scum because [he believes] I am more likely to pick high point values.

As JD has said, the entire argument Neo has now has changed drastically from the start. It's no longer him simply claiming without evidence that I must be scum because I am more likely to be mafia. It is no longer simply just him reaction trolling me. Neo has role knowledge, used it against me, and has determined based on his role and how I reacted to him that I must be scum.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:00 pm 
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Right, and you really might not. But maybe you played enough with him to have an idea.

I draw on behavior and games in the past when interacting with players in a current game to gauge how/why that player is acting. Then I try to figure out if they're townie or otherwise. It's by no means exact, and I can and have been wrong in this. That being said, trying to use these same games to determine how a player would pick role options that are unknown in both how fun they might be to play, how difficult, how easy, or various other aspects that might influence a player's choice is a horrible idea. If there was something concrete to work with (like knowing point totals), then it'd be *something* of a start, but by no means the be all end all.

Sure, it's not an exact science, and yes, you make a good point with the joy factor. But on day one, I still believe it gives us better information than a random lynch.
(But at this time we do have more than that).

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Also you leave JD out of this.

Hey, you keep bringing him back up, insisting he knows you so well!
You seem to have an unhealthy attachment to the Cardinal. :p

Quote:
And to answer that question as well since you seem to be like Sky concerning this type of thinking, no, I do not know what JD would tend towards. I'm sure back on the magic forums there may have been a post where he stated preferences, but the only time I ever really socialized with anyone in the mafia subforum was when I was playing games. It's really the only way I talk with and get to know people in a sense.

You don't really need anyone to bluntly state that somewhere to get a sense.


Quote:
The argument is the entire thing. KoD is mafia because he is more likely to pick mafia roles. Or, stated another way, because KoD is more likely to pick mafia roles, KoD is mafia.

It should be: KoD is more likely to pick mafia roles - KoD is more likely (than others) to end up being mafia.


Quote:
First, no. Sky did not start off that way. Why do you think I've been raising hell over here?

1. Because you enjoy it.
2. Because you react strongly to suspicion being thrown your way.

My guess is both.

Quote:
Second, I know what both of you are saying. It is a consequence of following the logic that is implied from what I stated. My "rhetorical hypberbole" -- the Everyman argument JD concisely and correctly talk about - illustrated how absurd it was to apply it to everyone. Step away from your perspective from a moment, and look at this from my eyes to get a better understanding. Neo uses a faulty argument that I claim can apply to everyone (due to how he is using it). Neo disagrees and says he is only applying it to me (it is obvious that there is nothing specific to me concerning all this). So I apply the concept to him as well and vote him over it for the same reasons. If you reject that it can be applied to everyone (which you should since everyone obviously has different tendencies), then you must accept that more is needed focus on a single person. That is a logical consequence of rejecting my asserted statement (that the argument applies to everyone).

How is it not specific to you when his whole point is that you would be likely to pick a mafia role?
Not sure I understand what you mean by 'more is needed focus on a single person'. More is needed than just claiming it's true for a specific person? Sure.

Quote:
Ok Dusky, what are the player tendencies? What is the statistical likelihood? Show me what you got.

I never claimed to have all the information myself. But what we could have done, is let everyone chime in and share their evaluation and expectations for all the other players they have some experience with. Patterns could emerge. And with the added information of available points, we can figure out possible ranges for every player.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:37 pm 
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@Dusky:

I've seen an argument concerning random vs using statistics. It didn't end well for the statistics since it ended up being wrong. But that's neither here nor there. Point is, you need more information to work with otherwise you're just being a tad arbitrary (like with how all this originally started).

I bring JD up because he gets where I am coming from. That doesn't necessarily mean he knows every iota of my being for vice versa. You asking me to iterate what JD prefers shows me you don't get this. And hard data helps with getting a sense as opposed to being opinionated concerning someone as data. By that I mean, take a look at Rubik. He came in and asserted, based on his own experience, that I would tend towards scum. The experience isn't quantified so you don't have any raw data to work with. But you, seemingly, would accept this. Course I've rejected what Rubik has said because he's wrong (just as Neo was wrong to make that assertion initially without any hard data to back it -- I say this knowing his role's ability says I am more likely, but since I don't know how the role works exactly I'm inclined to stick to my guns here until such a time as it becomes clear how Neo's ability functions in its entirety. Like, for example, does he know everyone's points so as to know I am more likely, or does he only have my points yet is told I am more likely or what? It's unclear.).

Dusky
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It should be: KoD is more likely to pick mafia roles - KoD is more likely (than others) to end up being mafia.


It wasn't. Refer back to what I said to Sky concerning the quote I pointed out from Neo. His intent wasn't that I was more likely to be mafia. His intent was that I am mafia because of being more likely to pick mafia roles (which is obvious when you consider he had that role knowledge at the start when doing this).

Quote:
1. Because you enjoy it.
2. Because you react strongly to suspicion being thrown your way.

My guess is both.


Well, you're not wrong.

Quote:
How is it not specific to you when his whole point is that you would be likely to pick a mafia role?


*Hold his face with hands.*

Dusky is mafia because Dusky will pick roles with high point values.
Neo is mafia because Neo will pick roles with high point values.

etc etc

Everyman argument applies it to everyone. Neo refutes this saying he tends towards town because less pressure. You refute this because everyone has different inclinations.

Obviously the Everyman argument doesn't work.

KoD is mafia because KoD will pick roles with high point values.*

Nothing else was provided by Neo when he began his argument. The structure is literally the same as the Everyman argument. You had already maintained everyone has different inclinations (and you don't know what those inclinations are). You can't just keep forcibly applying it to me while exempting others.** There is nothing to back that I am more likely to pick high point values (just as there was nothing to back that you or Neo were more likely to pick high point values). This is why it is not specific to me.

* If we want to get technical because of the wording and intent stuff that was mentioned earlier regarding Neo's original post, then we can do that. We can get real pedantic over it. Fast.

** This is being mentioned for the sake of argument since the course of the current events is no longer in this vein. As mentioned in previous posts, Neo's argument has changed. It's no longer him arbitrarily singling me out with an argument that could be applied to everyone (as was the case previously).

Quote:
Not sure I understand what you mean by 'more is needed focus on a single person'. More is needed than just claiming it's true for a specific person? Sure.


Yes, that's what I mean. If someone says something about you, you'd want them to prove it, wouldn't you?

Such was the case when this all started. Neo claimed I'm more likely to pick high point values and, consequently, I must be mafia (again I showed the intent earlier -- yes, I have to be pedantic over every detail because you guys force me to be that way). If that's all it took to be true, then the same could be said for everyone else. Dusky is mafia because she is more likely to pick high point values. Neo is mafia etc etc etc.

Quote:
I never claimed to have all the information myself. But what we could have done, is let everyone chime in and share their evaluation and expectations for all the other players they have some experience with. Patterns could emerge. And with the added information of available points, we can figure out possible ranges for every player.


HA HA HA

No.

Patterns emerge from us interacting and evaluating each other (take JD's assessment of Neo and myself as an example). That's how you play mafia. Your suggestion is to forego that in favor of us having story time and saying what we think about each other, then applying what may or may not amount of "accurate" representations of how we'd act in this one game wrt to choices for our roles *despite* the fact that there are variables we can't quantify easily (realistically) like how the joy factor I mentioned earlier for when someone picks a choice. There can be many such issues with this approach.

Yet you feel that it is beneficial and will help with (I assume) catching scum despite how tainted this would be by opinion (which makes it NOT hard data to work with unlike actual statistics with numbers).



AND BY THE BY, typically we play mafia by analyzing player behavior (not an exact science) and voting. Can you use psychology and statistics with this? Sure, but don't try to force feed me that you can heavily use those in this game and think it'll be more productive than just engaging each other in discussion (yes, the topics generate discussion, but it can generate a lot of fluff as well).


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:53 pm 
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i forgot this was a thing until just now

these pointless walls of psychoanalysis are really making me nostalgic for the so called "good old days"

i don't know if anyone brought this up but

@Hello World: Does this game have a back-up mod or co-mod? If so could you link me to their account?

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:36 pm 
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Vote count:
Aaarrrgh:0 votes
Cardinal dreven:0 votes
Duskyblue:0 votes
KoD:3 votes:Neosilk,Duskyblue,Rubik.
Neosilk:0 votes.
Ragnarokio::1 vote: Rubik.
Rubik:0 votes
Skystone:2 votes:KoD,Aaarrrgh.

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Last edited by Hello World on Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:49 pm 
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i feel like claiming something

i have 10 mafia points which was the lowest combination i could make although i just ended up picking whatever seemed most interesting and it ended up that way

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:56 pm 
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Oh how I've missed you Rag.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:57 pm 
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My current points should be 22. A combination of 22 + 0.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:30 pm 
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:bored::bored::roll::roll:Seriously KoD? This is your argument? Have you heard of probability, or are you just genreally against science?

I feel at this point anything is more productive than that argument. It is completely irrelevant for the underlying idea what Neo's original intent was.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:47 pm 
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I had 37 total points over all options, with the biggest modifier being +10.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:56 pm 
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Duskyblue wrote:
:bored::bored::roll::roll:Seriously KoD? This is your argument? Have you heard of probability, or are you just genreally against science?

I feel at this point anything is more productive than that argument. It is completely irrelevant for the underlying idea what Neo's original intent was.


First, no. I am not against science. I am against trying to push an agenda with science while having a lack of sufficient information.

Again, the entire start of this had no basis to claim that I am more likely than any other person to be mafia.

Now is a different matter due to Neo's role ability (which, again, still hasn't been detailed properly to give full context regarding how it works).

JD said it best. You focused on the X of Neo's argument instead of the entire thing. And even if you focus on the X (the premise that I am more likely to pick mafia), there is no basis for it. The premise can be applied to everyone equally (and you'll disagree with that because people have different inclinations which is the entire point: you need hard, relevant data to back up the assertion whether it is against everyone or against an individual -- which was the case with me when Neo first started this).


Quote:
I feel at this point anything is more productive than that argument. It is completely irrelevant for the underlying idea what Neo's original intent was.


Hey, I actually focused on what was going on. You and Sky wanted to argue the what-ifs. Reap what you sow.




As an aside, Rag and I gave different answers than what you're giving Dusky. Originally people mentioned total points (I have a different number for that). Rag gave the combined point total of the two options she chose. That being said, what is your total for the combined options?


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