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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:22 pm 
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I'm gonna copy-paste my thoughts about risk factor from the arena forum here, to both share them and hear what others think:

I believe the trick to risk factor is not to kid yourself of what choice your opponent is gonna take, or just use it when both options suit you fine.

This has everything to do with opponent's life total.

At 20 life, the vast majority of the time, your opponent will take the 4 damage. This can help you recover from slow starts, especially if your holding some strong 4-drops. Also, you'll have the jump-start available to use later on when things change.

At 16-12 life, opponent will most likely also take the damage, but it depends on the board state. If your very far ahead and he has few/no answers in hand, conserving life could become a priority, but giving you 3 cards will likely put him even further behind.

At 12-8 life things change. At this point 4 damage can suddenly put you close to lethal, but his decision will be mostly based on the board state. If he's ahead, he'll take the damage just so you don't draw into answers. If he's behind and looking at lethal next turn, you get the cards. If things are even, it's a coin-flip. He'll likely decide based on cards in hand, available mana and what he's likely to draw. If this is the first casting of risk factor, a second cast will really pressure him.

At 8-5 life you'll nearly always get the cards unless opponent is sitting on lethal next turn or is feeling cocky (and even then the risk is big). If this is your first cast, your nearly there.

At 4 life or under, cards are guaranteed unless he just gives up.

The card is probably at it's worst when your opponent has high life, but isn't without it's usefulness. When he's at low life, it won't end the game by itself but can apply a lot of pressure and force bad decisions.

It's a very interesting card in the sense that the card seems to mutate during the various phases of a game. Also, being an instant, doing this on opp's end step can suddenly alter a game dramatically and catch your opponent off-guard.

One thing about this card is that I don't think it works in control, because it's at it's best when you have a board that is pressuring opponent's life total.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:32 pm 
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I think it's actually good in a burn deck. I kinda want to run it alongside Exp Frenzy in an updated Keld build.
I hope we get the 5th card solution soon so I can start cracking my packs...


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:34 pm 
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It.

Is.

Bad.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:07 pm 
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From my limited experience playing against this card, I can see it as a 1-of or 2-of in aggressive decks. Too many copies risks them turning up too much in the early-game when you really need creatures. Meanwhile if it goes past the early game, then it's a 3-mana 4-damage burn spell to the face at instant speed, which isn't terrible. In principle the opponent can let you draw 3 cards instead of course, but if they do you are likely to draw to more damage - remembering that lands are now live topdecks as 4-damage burn spells - and they'll die quickly afterwards. Add on the auxiliary benefits of being able to turn dead lands into more burn, as well as the fact that you can discard it to The Flame of Keld and still generate value with it, I think playing a few copies is plausible.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:21 pm 
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divinevert wrote:
It.

Is.

Bad.


With very few exceptions you are giving it too much credit.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:50 pm 
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If it works out as a 3 mana 4 damage with flashback then it's a fine card in the right deck. If it draws you into 4 damage worth of spells twice it's ok'ish to meh. But it gives your opponent the choice, which isn't great. Depending on the deck it might actually be correct to give them cards more often than taking the damage.

I can see it working out though, especially against control. From my limited experience playing against it I upped my initial take on the card, it put in work and then sat in the graveyard all menacing. Would probably play two copies in a standard burn deck, might even turn out to be worth more slots. Don't think it belongs anywhere near a boros deck but maybe keld red could use a couple.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:58 pm 
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Its face only burn that cant kill an opponent. Its hard to imagine a worse card concept.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:00 pm 
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Sure, but if your deck is trying to count to 20 with limited resources and time then it's either boros charm for 1 more (not bad in standard) or a draw 3. And you can toss a land you get from the draw 3 to go again.

Not saying it's an amazing card, but I wouldn't be surprised if it functions just fine in a burn style deck.

edit:

Something like

4 Chemister's Insight (GRN) 32
4 Clifftop Retreat (DAR) 239
2 Crackling Drake (GRN) 163
3 Deafening Clarion (GRN) 165
4 Glacial Fortress (XLN) 255
4 Ionize (GRN) 179
3 Island (XLN) 264
3 Lava Coil (GRN) 108
3 Lightning Strike (XLN) 149
3 Mountain (XLN) 272
2 Niv-Mizzet, Parun (GRN) 192
2 Ral, Izzet Viceroy (GRN) 195
2 Risk Factor (GRN) 113
4 Sacred Foundry (GRN) 254
2 Search for Azcanta (XLN) 74
4 Shock (M19) 156
4 Steam Vents (GRN) 257
4 Sulfur Falls (DAR) 247
3 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria (DAR) 207

Could be a fun shell where risk factor works, either mode is a great result for only 3 mana for this deck. Not saying this'll be a t1 deck ofc, for burn you likely need to be much more aggressive and not trying to run fun 6 drops, but this is just a take on it that I'm interested in trying out.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:16 pm 
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Well, if it's so bad why has it been winning me games?

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:44 pm 
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divinevert wrote:
Its face only burn that cant kill an opponent. Its hard to imagine a worse card concept.


What do you mean it can't kill the opponent? It's either 4 damage or 3 cards. 4 damage is 4 damage, while 3 cards is likely to be more than 4 damage. Sure you can't kill the opponent the turn you cast it, but as long as you're not on a 1-turn clock, is that a problem?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:00 am 
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Haven_pt wrote:
Well, if it's so bad why has it been winning me games?


To be fair, it's crazy the number of people on Arena who will give you 3 cards while they sit at 18 life...


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:49 am 
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It's awesome in keld red. You get your opponent low pretty quickly anyway and risk factor either does 4 damage to get closer to the target or lets you draw your burn spells. Besides the flashback allows you to refarm unnecessar mountains.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:28 am 
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Auunj wrote:
It's awesome in keld red. You get your opponent low pretty quickly anyway and risk factor either does 4 damage to get closer to the target or lets you draw your burn spells. Besides the flashback allows you to refarm unnecessar mountains.


This, a except I'm not running any flame of Kelds atm (out of uncommon WCs).

I'd say it's basically a replacement for bomat courier (bomat rarely did 4 damage) that is decent in the right shell.

I'm currently on a 11-0 winning streak with a mono-red deck that I put together with what I have unlocked. Bad deck/bad players? It's possible...

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:18 am 
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Seems possibly reasonable in keld red to slightly lower the randomness you suffer after discarding your hand, I guess, since you will have something to do and the bad option can be more punishing with chapter 3 waiting to resolve next turn.

It does promise you to be much more unlikely to run out of fuel before you succeed to burn someone out if that is your game plan, at the cost of making your endgame way more clunky.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:22 am 
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If you are playing bad opponents, the card is awesome.

If you are playing against control or a really slow deck/deck with a bad start, the card can be good. When it is good you were likely winning anyways so did it really do anything for you?

When you are losing, you might as well have drawn a land.

There's a reason cards like this rarely see play in anything outside of homebrew decks.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:55 am 
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Banedon wrote:
divinevert wrote:
Its face only burn that cant kill an opponent. Its hard to imagine a worse card concept.


What do you mean it can't kill the opponent? It's either 4 damage or 3 cards. 4 damage is 4 damage, while 3 cards is likely to be more than 4 damage. Sure you can't kill the opponent the turn you cast it, but as long as you're not on a 1-turn clock, is that a problem?


If they are within burn range, you'd need both the mana to cast another spell and to draw into another burn spell.

You can solve this problem by cutting this and adding burn. It could theoretically have value in a discard heavy deck as burn value from your graveyard, but as a spell, it's just no bueno.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:14 am 
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For the most part, I have not feared this card at all. There was one game where I had it played on me 4 times, 2 regular and 2 jumpstarted, and I did lose that game. Overall though, I have won many more games against this card then I have lost.

I could see it in a straight aggressive red deck. My personal issue with it in straight red is that I prefer Frenzy to Risk, and they don't play well together.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:37 pm 
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divinevert wrote:
Banedon wrote:
divinevert wrote:
Its face only burn that cant kill an opponent. Its hard to imagine a worse card concept.


What do you mean it can't kill the opponent? It's either 4 damage or 3 cards. 4 damage is 4 damage, while 3 cards is likely to be more than 4 damage. Sure you can't kill the opponent the turn you cast it, but as long as you're not on a 1-turn clock, is that a problem?


If they are within burn range, you'd need both the mana to cast another spell and to draw into another burn spell.

You can solve this problem by cutting this and adding burn. It could theoretically have value in a discard heavy deck as burn value from your graveyard, but as a spell, it's just no bueno.


Can you name another burn spell that's as efficient as this one, and legal in the current standard? Don't mention Lightning Strike, because that's already a 4-of in any deck that runs this card. Also, if they are within burn range and you can cast this card, chances are you can cast any spell you draw because this spell costs 3 mana and your curve likely tops at 3 (or 4 mana at most).

You make it sound like this card is so bad. Let's suppose this card did 5 damage instead of 4. Is it playable then? 6 damage? 7 damage?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:14 pm 
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Banedon wrote:
divinevert wrote:
Banedon wrote:

What do you mean it can't kill the opponent? It's either 4 damage or 3 cards. 4 damage is 4 damage, while 3 cards is likely to be more than 4 damage. Sure you can't kill the opponent the turn you cast it, but as long as you're not on a 1-turn clock, is that a problem?


If they are within burn range, you'd need both the mana to cast another spell and to draw into another burn spell.

You can solve this problem by cutting this and adding burn. It could theoretically have value in a discard heavy deck as burn value from your graveyard, but as a spell, it's just no bueno.


Can you name another burn spell that's as efficient as this one, and legal in the current standard? Don't mention Lightning Strike, because that's already a 4-of in any deck that runs this card. Also, if they are within burn range and you can cast this card, chances are you can cast any spell you draw because this spell costs 3 mana and your curve likely tops at 3 (or 4 mana at most).

You make it sound like this card is so bad. Let's suppose this card did 5 damage instead of 4. Is it playable then? 6 damage? 7 damage?

I like your thinking!
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:23 pm 
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Banedon wrote:
divinevert wrote:
Banedon wrote:

What do you mean it can't kill the opponent? It's either 4 damage or 3 cards. 4 damage is 4 damage, while 3 cards is likely to be more than 4 damage. Sure you can't kill the opponent the turn you cast it, but as long as you're not on a 1-turn clock, is that a problem?


If they are within burn range, you'd need both the mana to cast another spell and to draw into another burn spell.

You can solve this problem by cutting this and adding burn. It could theoretically have value in a discard heavy deck as burn value from your graveyard, but as a spell, it's just no bueno.


Can you name another burn spell that's as efficient as this one, and legal in the current standard? Don't mention Lightning Strike, because that's already a 4-of in any deck that runs this card. Also, if they are within burn range and you can cast this card, chances are you can cast any spell you draw because this spell costs 3 mana and your curve likely tops at 3 (or 4 mana at most).

You make it sound like this card is so bad. Let's suppose this card did 5 damage instead of 4. Is it playable then? 6 damage? 7 damage?


Got to agree there, I'm already playing all the decent burn there is...
My streak ended at 12-1... :( (Monmental flood vs boros, still close though. No risk factor and only 1 burn spell in 20 cards)
But I've started a new one (3-0 atm). :D

All of a sudden I feel like Barney playing duels.

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