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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 5:06 pm 
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Banedon wrote:
divinevert wrote:
Was playing Selesnya Tokens vs. Izzet Burn.


I'm threatening fatal. He casts Risk Factor. I of course take the damage and then pummel him to death because he didn't affect the board.


Was there any other realistic card he could've played that would've won him the game?


Spalshed white and played Deafening Clarion or stay Izzet and play Fiery Cannonade.

Banefire/Explosiin to the face for lethal.

I just finished a match earlier where the opponent was playing mono-red aggro with risk factor in the deck, very similar to Cucho's deck. He play 2 Risk Factor from hand and recast tgem from the graveyard. He spent 12 mana over 4 turns, dealt 12 damage to me, drew 3 cards and lost anyway.

When you are winning this will gas you up as only when did my opponent have me to 10 did I consider letting him draw (he didn't). At 6 life I let him draw and even then he only had 1 mana open to shock.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 5:35 pm 
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divinevert wrote:
Banedon wrote:
divinevert wrote:
Was playing Selesnya Tokens vs. Izzet Burn.


I'm threatening fatal. He casts Risk Factor. I of course take the damage and then pummel him to death because he didn't affect the board.


Was there any other realistic card he could've played that would've won him the game?

Fiery Canonade. Most of the targeted burn could've bought him a turn.


Come on, be realistic. Fiery Canonade is a sweeper. Who's going to run that in an aggressive red deck? Same goes for Deafening Clarion, which is not a card to put in an aggro deck.

As for Banefire, you'd need 5 lands to Banefire for the same amount of damage as Risk Factor. With six lands you'd be able to Banefire for more damage, but at that point you can jump-start Risk Factor on the same turn.

Of course you will win some games against a Risk Factor deck, just like you will lose some. The question is could he have won/lost if Risk Factor were any other (realistic) card.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 6:06 pm 
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Banedon wrote:
divinevert wrote:
Banedon wrote:

Was there any other realistic card he could've played that would've won him the game?

Fiery Canonade. Most of the targeted burn could've bought him a turn.


Come on, be realistic. Fiery Canonade is a sweeper. Who's going to run that in an aggressive red deck? Same goes for Deafening Clarion, which is not a card to put in an aggro deck.

As for Banefire, you'd need 5 lands to Banefire for the same amount of damage as Risk Factor. With six lands you'd be able to Banefire for more damage, but at that point you can jump-start Risk Factor on the same turn.

Of course you will win some games against a Risk Factor deck, just like you will lose some. The question is could he have won/lost if Risk Factor were any other (realistic) card.


First of all, it wasn't an aggressive red deck...it was Izzet Burn.

Second, I thought the same about Deafening Clarion...until the Boros Aggro deck played in on me turn 3 and I read it...3 damage and/or lifelink. Actually a pretty amusing piece of tech maybe for Boros Aggro, but not a damage to the face spell for Izzet Burn. But it would have kept the Izzet Player alive, just like Fiery Cannonade would have.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 7:16 pm 
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Banedon wrote:
divinevert wrote:
Banedon wrote:

Was there any other realistic card he could've played that would've won him the game?

Fiery Canonade. Most of the targeted burn could've bought him a turn.


Come on, be realistic. Fiery Canonade is a sweeper. Who's going to run that in an aggressive red deck? Same goes for Deafening Clarion, which is not a card to put in an aggro deck.

As for Banefire, you'd need 5 lands to Banefire for the same amount of damage as Risk Factor. With six lands you'd be able to Banefire for more damage, but at that point you can jump-start Risk Factor on the same turn.

Of course you will win some games against a Risk Factor deck, just like you will lose some. The question is could he have won/lost if Risk Factor were any other (realistic) card.


I run Fiery Canonade in Izzet Burn. Ironically, Ral's ultimate has won me more games than counting to 20 has.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 7:33 pm 
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If you're playing a burn deck you don't run sweepers because you need all the cards you have to burn the opponent. Like, just look at modern or legacy burn decks. Do you see them running Radiant Flames or Pyroclasm? Sweepers don't enhance your board position. They don't help you kill the opponent, they don't do damage, they even kill your own creatures. You run sweepers when you are defending, when you are the control deck, not vice versa.

Deafening Clarion is the same. The only time you'll ever want one in your deck is if you're playing against another aggro deck (especially one that's faster than you) + you're on the draw. That it can provide Lifelink is irrelevant. Your life total doesn't matter in most games, because you are the one establishing a clock. There's a reason modern or legacy burn decks run Eidolon of the Great Revel or Pyrostatic Pillar even though the effects are symmetric and even though they will be doing a lot of damage to themselves. If both players take 10 damage from these cards the burn deck will win much more often than not.

If you are saying that these sweepers would've kept the Izzet player alive, maybe, but remember: staying alive one more turn doesn't mean winning. It's very likely that they will just lose slower.

The only sweeper that's fine in standard burn decks is Goblin Chainwhirler, and that's only because he's fine as a proactive play. For the truly desperate I guess there's also Radiating Lightning. But no way any aggressive red deck should run Deafening Clarion or Fiery Cannonade.

divinevert wrote:
I run Fiery Canonade in Izzet Burn. Ironically, Ral's ultimate has won me more games than counting to 20 has.


You're not playing a burn deck then. Like, you have Ral. First that's a 5-mana planeswalker, which is too high CMC for any burn deck. Second you're ticking him up. His +mode is a value-generating mode, not a burn spell. If you're winning with Ral's ultimate, you're not winning because of burn, you are winning because you've generated more value / drew more cards / gotten more 2-for-1's than your opponent over the course of the game.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:36 pm 
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Risk Factor does not affect the board... it affects the game... it may not be fancy but it's effective.
The card is a key piece to the deck that is eating alive Arenas meta... accept it guys you where wrong assessing the card and this conversation is getting old.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:01 pm 
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Risk Factor does not affect the board... it affects the game... it may not be fancy but it's effective.
The card is a key piece to the deck that is eating alive Arenas meta... accept it guys you where wrong assessing the card and this conversation is getting old.


I kinda agree, but I think one side is over valuing it, and the other undervalues it.

IMO, the over value comes because the mono red deck is very good and Risk is a factor in that. Replace it with 4 more lightning strikes (if you could run 8) and it would perform about the same. We don't have 4 more burn spells better than Risk, or really 4 more spells that are arguably better than risk, so it has a spot It works for Mono red because once mono red is behind, they are probably going to lose anyway, so a card that works well when you are ahead works well in mono red.

The undervalue comes from trying it in the wrong deck. IMO, Izzet is too slow for this type of card, and of course it will perform poorly. I see Risk in many 'wrong' decks.

I will say I am slightly biased against it because I have had a great record vs Risk. On the other hand, I have played some Mono Red, and I feel like the last 8 slots I am using sub par cards, or at the very least I wish there was something slightly better than what we have. I am not a huge fan of Warboss, Firebrand, Rigging Runner or Lightning Mare. Unless I am missing some secret tech, there isn't much beyond that. I can see the argument that Risk is as good as any of those.

Of course the counter is to run Boros for those last spots, and I think that may be the best option. Thee counter is that you are trading consistency for some more power, and the trade off is not worth it.

IMO, I think Boros is the best Aggro deck, but I don't think the margin is very wide vs RDW.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:31 pm 
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I *think* RDW will pull ahead of boros by a fair margin once the best control decks are properly established, to me boros just looks a bit too slow. But then I'm thinking that Pheonix won't make the cut either, so time will tell. Not sure that any midrange deck is going to do well in this format, apart from maybe an instant speed focused selesnya and dimir "midrange", so I think the name of the game for aggro will be to go as fast as possible.

We'll see in the next few weeks how things actually work out.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:46 am 
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There is actually a good sweeper for aggro (as a finisher) Cosmotronic Wave. But it's there to push damage.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:42 am 
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Sorry guys, but mono-white is the best aggro deck. No doubts about running risk factor in that one though.

How about a risk factor success story?
I was playing mono-red vs gruul, I miss my 3rd land drop and fall a little bit behind. I've had risk factor since my opening hand, but I've gone down no 5 life and only just manage to stabilise with a goblin siege commander for some chumping.
Then I go on the counter attack and get him down to 9 with risk factor still in hand (only card) and mana to play it eot.
I play it, no surprises, he gives me 3 cards (2x lava runner and wizards lightning) which gave me lethal (would have been lethal if he had taken the damage too. So it was actually good when I was behind.

So, it occurs to me that factor is a damn good red draw spell if you have your opponent under 10 life. It's actually at it's best when opponent is under 10 life and it so happens that red burn is pretty good at getting opponents under 10, so like I've said before, it's doing a fine job of filling the hole bomat's rotation left.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:53 am 
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Haven_pt wrote:
Sorry guys, but mono-white is the best aggro deck.


Playing both, I had a better record with white. Playing against both, I have a better record vs white. Boros has been a pain for two main reasons. First, Mentor can get them out of range of my sweeper of choice, Clarion. Even if they can't get out of range completely, Integrity can save their best creature. Now, I know white has pride, but since many of their toughness is only 1, clarion still hits them, even with the cities blessing.

The second reason is Tajic. The haste is a pain, but mainly Clarion ends up only hitting him.

I fully admit this is from the point of view of Jeskai control (And probably Izzet with their sweeper). I am sure Soot balances it out a bit.

I am missing some cards for a full Boros deck, best I have done is Boros splash, so I may be missing some weakness compared to mono white.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:52 am 
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One of the things you should ask yourself when running factor is, IMHO, "Can't I get to 4 mana fast and reliably enough to run experimental frenzy and cast it on turn 4 instead?" being castable with 3 mana and packing so much potential direct damage in one card is what makes risk factor good at ensuring you are actually closing the game in a balls to the wall aggro deck, but if you can reliably reach frenzy it becomes less cool.

I don't think there's any other card in standard that ensures you land your last points of damage to close out the game without needing a bazillion (read 5) mana.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:21 am 
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turns out Experimental Frenzy the one that should be talked about :)


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:04 am 
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:05 am 
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tmp_tmp wrote:
turns out Experimental Frenzy the one that should be talked about :)

nah, that card is clearly good. Risk factor is a card that's going to have split opinions so an interesting point of discussion.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:25 pm 
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Banedon wrote:
If you're playing a burn deck you don't run sweepers because you need all the cards you have to burn the opponent. Like, just look at modern or legacy burn decks. Do you see them running Radiant Flames or Pyroclasm? Sweepers don't enhance your board position. They don't help you kill the opponent, they don't do damage, they even kill your own creatures. You run sweepers when you are defending, when you are the control deck, not vice versa.

Deafening Clarion is the same. The only time you'll ever want one in your deck is if you're playing against another aggro deck (especially one that's faster than you) + you're on the draw. That it can provide Lifelink is irrelevant. Your life total doesn't matter in most games, because you are the one establishing a clock. There's a reason modern or legacy burn decks run Eidolon of the Great Revel or Pyrostatic Pillar even though the effects are symmetric and even though they will be doing a lot of damage to themselves. If both players take 10 damage from these cards the burn deck will win much more often than not.

If you are saying that these sweepers would've kept the Izzet player alive, maybe, but remember: staying alive one more turn doesn't mean winning. It's very likely that they will just lose slower.

The only sweeper that's fine in standard burn decks is Goblin Chainwhirler, and that's only because he's fine as a proactive play. For the truly desperate I guess there's also Radiating Lightning. But no way any aggressive red deck should run Deafening Clarion or Fiery Cannonade.

divinevert wrote:
I run Fiery Canonade in Izzet Burn. Ironically, Ral's ultimate has won me more games than counting to 20 has.


You're not playing a burn deck then. Like, you have Ral. First that's a 5-mana planeswalker, which is too high CMC for any burn deck. Second you're ticking him up. His +mode is a value-generating mode, not a burn spell. If you're winning with Ral's ultimate, you're not winning because of burn, you are winning because you've generated more value / drew more cards / gotten more 2-for-1's than your opponent over the course of the game.


Izzet Counterburn ain't legacy burn. That's kind of the point. Even with cards like Risk Factor, you can't just count to 20 fast enough unless you're opponent has a godawful start.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:45 pm 
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divinevert wrote:
Izzet Counterburn ain't legacy burn. That's kind of the point. Even with cards like Risk Factor, you can't just count to 20 fast enough unless you're opponent has a godawful start.


Are we thinking of the same deck? It has Ral, Enigma Drake + Crackling Drake, Ionize, bunch of burn spells?

If that is the deck, it shouldn't be running Risk Factor, yeah.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:42 am 
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So I decided to give RDW Risk factor a try. My 1st game vs dimir control I just burnt him to death, BUT this took a **** of work, the red creatures are EXTREMELY bad. Except of steamkin of course. But with 3-4 mana on board and your steamkin dead/countered all the time, it's not like you can spam spells, even with flame of keld III it's just 1, max 2 spells that might not even connect. Of course it would be a bit different if my opponent didn't play control.

So I'm thinking if for a burn deck a green/red shell wouldn't be better with multiple activations each turn and card draw from frenzy instead of keld. The double land could be mitigated by the dino that allows you to play 2 lands a turn.

But does it even make sense to go spells instead of the huge creatures green offers?

Opinions?


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:31 am 
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Auunj wrote:
So I decided to give RDW Risk factor a try. My 1st game vs dimir control I just burnt him to death, BUT this took a **** of work, the red creatures are EXTREMELY bad. Except of steamkin of course. But with 3-4 mana on board and your steamkin dead/countered all the time, it's not like you can spam spells, even with flame of keld III it's just 1, max 2 spells that might not even connect. Of course it would be a bit different if my opponent didn't play control.

So I'm thinking if for a burn deck a green/red shell wouldn't be better with multiple activations each turn and card draw from frenzy instead of keld. The double land could be mitigated by the dino that allows you to play 2 lands a turn.

But does it even make sense to go spells instead of the huge creatures green offers?

Opinions?


Red creatures as a general rule are pretty bad...usually they are cheap, decently stated for attack but not very durable.

I believe NOX did a deck with that in it. It sounded amusing and I remember hearing something about him drawing through the majority of his deck in one of the games he did with it.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:15 am 
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Found the deck. Seems nice, Wayward Swordtooth t3 into Experimental Frenzy T4 with T1 dork, T2 dork looks like a nice way to spam spells ;-)


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